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Did Consumers' Tariff Fears Affect Their Spending in March?

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Key Takeaways

  • Retail sales are expected to improve in March as consumers likely hurried to purchase items before U.S. tariffs took effect in April.
  • Economists expect that car sales pushed consumer spending higher last month as buyers sought to avoid 25% tariffs on auto imports.
  • The retail sector likely experienced its worst first quarter since 2020 and lagging consumer sentiment could worsen the sales outlook for later this year, economists said.

Consumers say they’re worried about the economy's direction, but those fears aren’t exp꧙ected to appear in the March retail sales report.

Backed by high auto sales, consumers likely rushed to stores in March to 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:avoid potential price increases spurred by tariffs. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswire and The Wall Street Journal expect March retail sales data to increase by 1.2% over the prior month. The 🐟re🧜port is scheduled to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

“Consumers fretting over another spike in goods prices due to 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:recipro♐cal and sectoral import tariffs implemented in April have be𝓡en keen to speed up their planned goods purchases,” wꦯrote Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Economics. 

Consumer spending is an 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:important economic factor that has 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:kept the country from recession in recent yea🤪rs. Economists have said a slowdown in spendin💟g could .

Automobile Sales Seen as Driving March Growth

The spending surge would represent an improvement over the year’s slow start. 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:February’s meager growth followed a “澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:holiday hangover” plunge in January.  But while the overall numbers are expected to be ꦕgood, the report’s details may not represent as much of an improvement as it appears.&n🌸bsp;

Automobile sales are expected to drive most of the sales growth, with early March data showing car 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:sales reached their highest level since April 2021. Economists attributed this spike to car buyers looking to get ahead of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:U.S. tariffs of 25% on all imported cars.

Without the sales of automobiles and gaജsoline, BMO economists e🐎xpect retail sales only grew by 0.2% in March.

Even with the car sales, March data isn’t expected to be enough to rescue retailers from poor first-quarter results, which is expected to be the softest for retail sales since 2020, Wells Fargo economists wrote.

“On balance, performance so far this y🗹ear suggests consumer spending growth has stall𝓀ed in the face of heightened uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on the outlook,” Wells Fargo wrote. 

Spending Slowdown May Be Coming

A rec﷽e🙈nt spate of poor consumer sentiment surveys has economists projecting a slowdown in reports like retail sales and earnings, but it’s not likely to happen yet.

澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Consumer sentiment has declined for 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:several months as President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies have raised concerns about higher i▨nflation and created volatile market conditions. However, many tariffs didn't go into effect until April and even then, may not have much effect on prices for some time.

“The deterioration in optimism is not a positive development for consumer spending, but we don't expect it alone will drive households into hiding,” Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein.

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