Key Takeaways
- Officials at the Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of cutting the central bank's key interest rate as soon as June if the economy takes a turn for the worse.
- The Fed is currently in a holding pattern, keeping rates high to fight inflation, but could lower them to boost the economy and prevent unemployment from rising severely.
- President Donald Trump's trade wars could push up inflation and hurt employment simultaneously, creating a dilemma for the Fed's monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is in "wait and see" mode for now, but several Fed officials indicated this week that the central bank could cut rates as early as June if the economic data worsens.
In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as June if the economy shows signs of deteriorating under President Donald Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs.
"If we have convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way to move at that point,” Hammack said.
Another official, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, told Bloomberg Television he could see the central bank cutting interest rates if the labor market fell apart, but he didn't expect that to happen until at least July.
“It wouldn’t surprise me that you might start seeing more layoffs, a tick up in the unemployment rate going forward if the big tariffs in particular come back on,” Waller said Thursday. “I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner, once I started seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market.”
The Fed officials' comments highlighted the central bank's current dilemma as it waits to see if there is significant 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查✨询:economic fallou♛t from Trump's trade war.
The Fed's job is to keep inflation and unemployment low. Its primary tool, the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs for all kinds of loans. The Fed can boost the economy by lowering the rate or push down inflation by raising it. Economists say that Trump's tariffs risk 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:increasing inflationꦜ while hurting employme൲nt, leaving Fed officials to choose which problem to tackle first.
Lately, the Fed has been in a holding pattern, keeping the fed funds rate at above-average levels to snuff out the last embers of post-pandemic high inflation. As of March, the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:labor market was resilient, with low unemployment, and inflation was 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:falling toward the F🌳ed'💙s goal of a 2% annual rate, but officials are bracing for a turnaround on both fronts.
Investors currently expect the Fed to stand by at the next meeting of its policy committee in May, and cut rates in June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
Correction, April 25, 2025: A previous version of this article misidentified the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. It's to keep inflation and unemployment low.