Santa may not be visiting Wall Street this year after all. 

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% on Thursday and has lost ground in five straight sessions, giving investors little hope of getting a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Santa Claus rally, whic♏h is the tendency for stocks to rise during the last five sessions of a year and the first two of the new year. The inde♒x would have to rise 1.8% on Friday to get back into positive territory for the seven-day period this year.

Granted, 2024 was 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:an exceptional year for stocks, even without an end-of-year boost. The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:S&P 500 rose more than 20% for a second straight year, its first such stre🔯tch this millennium. 

But a Santa Claus rally is more than just a cherry on top of a year; it’s sometimes also seen as an omen. The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Santa Claus rally is historically c🌳orrelated with stocks’ January and full-year performance.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has, on average, returned 1.4% in January and 10.4% in the calendar year after a Santa Claus rally, according to a recent analysis by LPL Financial. (The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:S&P 500 was launched in 1957; stock performance before this year is based on its predecessor index, the S&P 90.) In years without a Santa Claus rally, the index’s average January return has been slightly negative and its full-🐻year return has averaged just 5%.

What’s the Outlook for Stocks in 2025?

While the odds of a Santa Claus rally appeared slim on Thursday, stock market experts remain optimistic a🐈bout the prospe𝔍cts for 2025.

Stocks are generally 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:expected to be supported by incoming President Donald Trump, who has vowed to extend the corporate tax cuts of his first term and slash regulations. The U.S. economy’s continued strength is also expected to underpin corporate profits, which experts believe will broaden after two years of narrow leadership. The Magnificent Seven stocks are still 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:expected to grow profit faster than the average S&P 500 company, but by the slimmest margin in seven years, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. 

The artificial intelligence (AI) craze is also seen evolving this year as the use of AI becomes more widespread. A small number of companies—most of them semiconductor and networking hardware companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO)—have thus far benefited from the AI revolu𝔍tion. Experts believe a greater variety of c꧑ompanies will begin to reap those benefits in 2025 as new infrastructure comes online and businesses find novel applications for the technology. 

Trump 2.0 Could Amplify Uncertainty

澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Donald Trump is known for treating the stock market’s performance as🍌 a proxy for the success of his administration. Yet, his impending presidency is a major source of uncertainty, which could make for a bumpy ride this year. 

Many of Trump’s signature policy proposals, if implemented, could have knock-on effects that drag on stocks. His proposed tariffs could help 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:stoke inflation by disrupting global supply chains and raising costs for businesses. Deportations of the magnitude Trump has promisღe♔d would likely also boost inflation. 

Resurgent inflation could force 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Federal Reserve officials to keep interest rates at a level they deem “restrictive,” which would stifle consumer demand and put extra pressure on businesses. 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Higher interest rates also would likely translate to higher bo🦋nd yields and a stronger dollar, both of which wo🧸uld weigh on riskier assets like stocks.