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Here's Where Traders Bet Tesla Stock Is Headed After Reporting Earnings Tuesday

A Tesla Cybertruck at the company's store in Colma, California

David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla stock to move roughly 11% in either direction after reporting first-quarter results after markets close on Tuesday.
  • Over the past four quarters, the stock has averaged a post-earnings move of 12.3%.
  • Tesla's first-quarter deliveries came in well below expectations, and as of Monday's close, the stock had lost more than 40% of its value this year.

Tesla (TSLA) is set to report first-quarter earnings after the bell, and investors are hoping results ca🍸n jolt the stock out of its recent malaise. 🃏

Options pricing suggests traders are expecting Tesla stock to move roughly 11% in either direction in the days after Tuesday's report. Based on Tuesday afternoon's share price of about $241, that would put Tesla stock between $212 and $269 on Friday. 

A double-digit post-earnings move wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Tesla, one of the more volatile 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:mega-cap stocks. After its four most recent quarterly reports, the company has seen its stock move 12.3% on average. Shares soared nearly 22% in October when the company 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:beat earnings estimates and CEO Elon Musk said the company was "on track" to begin producing a model costing less than $30,000 this year.🐷 

A lot has changed since October. President Donald Trump's tariffs could derail Musk's low-cost model plans. Trump's 25% duty on all foreign cars and car parts is expected to significantly 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:increase t꧅he cost of all automobiles—even Tesla's, which are assembled in the U.S. with some ༒foreign parts.🦹 

Musk may have to answer to investors concerned that his involvement with the White House is both distracting him from leading Tesla and damaging the brand. Tesla dealerships have become a regular target of anti-Trump protests, and international sales have plummeted amid 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:a global backlash to Musk's political interventions.  

Tesla's first-quarter deliveries 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:fell short of analysts' estimates, whichಌ had already been low♋ered since the start of the year. 

Trump's tariffs are expected to loom large over this round of corporate earnings reports. Analysts are 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:expecting a slump in the number of companies issuing earnings guidance. According to a recent JPMorgan analysis, traders are also expecting the most post-earnings stock volatility since the first quarter of 2020, when companies reported earnings at the height of Covid uncertainty.

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  1. Barchart. "."

  2. JPMorgan. "US Equity Derivatives Strategy - Option Expectations and Trades into Q1 earnings, Assessing S&P 500 Dividends, Systematic Positioning, 0DTE Activity."

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