Key Takeaways
- Several Federal Reserve officials in recent days have suggested the central bank may not raise its benchmark interest rate any further than its current 22-year high.
- The Fed's rate hikes so far have pushed up interest rates on all kinds of loans including credit cards, car loans, and mortgages.
- Yields on 10-year Treasurys fell Tuesday, reflecting market expectations that the Fed is done with its rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve𒀰 could be done raising its benchmark interest rate, at least for the time being, according t🍨o a recent string of remarks by Fed officials.
Between last Thursday and Tuesday afternoon, a series of public comments by policymakers at the central bank sent a message that there’s no immediate need to raise the fed funds rate any higher than its current range of 5.25 to 5.💮50%, its highest since 2001, where it’s been ☂since July.
Several Fed officials cited last week’s surge in government bond yields as evidence that the economy is slowing enough to restrain inflation without the need for any more intervention by the Fed.
A halt to the Fed’s campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes would mean less upward pressure on borrowing costs for all kinds of loans, including mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, which all tend to move in the same direction as the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:influential fed funds rate. On the other side of the coin, it would also push down rates offered by banks for certificates of deposit, which are 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:currently at the highest in years.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised the rate 11 times in an effort to discourage borrowing and spending, slow the economy, and subdue the runaway inflation that took hold as the economy reopened from the pandemic. The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the Fed’s 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:monetary policy, will meet in November.
Yields on government bonds, notably the 1༒0-year Treasury, typically rise in response to concerns among traders about inflation and future Fed rate hikes among other things. Yields also influence borrowing costs for businesses and individuals.
Yields fell Tuesday as traders absorbed the dovish Fed commentary, which was a change in tone from last month when Fed speakers said interest rates would have to 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:stay “higher for longer” to get inflation under control.
“The latest round of Fed speak chopped down how high ‘higher for longer’ will be,” Edward Moya, se𝓀nior market analyst at Oanda, said in a co꧃mmentary.
In thei🍬r recent remarks, Fed speakers emphasized the effects that high interest rates are already having on the economy.
“I actually don't think we need to increase rates any more,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said Tuesday morning. “I think we are in a good place in that regard."
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson was less definitive in a speech Monday at the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) in Dallas, emphasizing the drag that higher interest rates are having on the economy.
“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” he said.
Similarly, Lorrie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, told the NABE on Monday that “financial conditions have tightened notably” in recent months, and that “there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate.”
Logan’s comments echoed those of Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who said Thursday, “If financial conditions, which have tightened considerably in the past 90 days, remain tight, the need for us to take further action is diminished.”
Consumer price increases have slowed considerably since the Fed’s anti-inflation rate hikes began, with inflation falling to an annual increase of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:3.7% as of August according to the Consumer Price Index, down 𒀰from a peak of 9.1% in July.
However, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal, and the economy isn’t slowing down as much as Fed officials had predicted, preventing them from completely taking more rate hikes off the table. For instance, businesses have co🔥ntinued hiring workers at a surprisingly fast cli🐎p, defying expectations for a wave of layoffs.