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Consumer Inflation Cooled in February

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month, or 6% year-over🐻-year, at the slowest annual pace s🅺ince September of 2021

Woman checking bill at supermarket

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Consumer inflation cooled last month, signaling some success in the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Federal Reserve’s interest rate campaign and fueling speculation policymakers have more leeway to slow the pace of increases in the wake of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:high-profile bank failures.

The 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February from a month earlier, in line with estimates, and was up 6% year-over-year, the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday. Price gai🅘ns slowed from January’s 0.5% increase. It was the slowest annual pace since September of 2021, decelerating from 6.4% in January🐭.

澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy co𓃲sts, rose 0.5% last month, or 5.5% year-over-year. On an annual basis, they rose the least since December of 2021. Those figures we꧒re also in line with market expectations.

Key Takeaways

  • Prices as tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February, or 6% year-over-year, at the slowest annual rate since September of 2021
  • Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, were up 0.5%, or 5.5% year-over-year
  • Rising shelter and services costs were the main contributors to last month’s price gains; food prices rose modestly while prices for gasoline, used cars and trucks, and medical care services declined
  • Cooling inflation could prompt Fed policymakers to ease the pace of interest rate hikes, if not stopping them altogether, amid a wave of high-profile bank failures in the U.S.

Price Gains by Category

Shelter costs were by far the largest contributor to February’s price gains, accounting for more than 70% of the increase. They rose 0.8% last month and were up 8.1% year-over-year. Inflation in services, which includes sh𒁃elter costs, has outpaced goods inflation in recent months. The broader services index rose 0.6% last ღmonth and was up 7.3% year-over-year, well above the headline rate.

Food costs rose 0.4% and were up 9.5% year-over-year, decelerating from 10.1% in January. While elevated, it marks the smallest annual rate since April of last year. The index for food at home, which tracks groceries and other 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:consumer staples,🎉 rose 10.2% from a year earlier🥃. The index for food away from home, tracking prices at restaurants and outdoor dining establishments, rose 8.4%.

Energy prices declined, falling 0.6% from a month earlier and partially reversing a 2% gain in January. On an 𝕴annual basis, the energy index rose 5.1%, at the slowest annual pace since February of 2021. Gasoline prices, which climbed to records during the first half of 2022, declined on an annual basis, falling 2% year-over-year. Fuel oil costs were more elevated, rising 9.2% from a year ago.

Other categories experiencing deflation last month included prices for used cars and trucks, which fell 2.8%, or 13.6% year-over-year, and costs of medical care services, which declined 0.7% and were up just 2.1% on an annual basis.

Implications for Fed Policy

Progress in slowing the rate of inflation could prompt Fed officials to ease the pace of interest rate hikes, or stop them altogether. 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:Fed funds futures published by CME Group are now pricing in a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:terminal fed funds rate between 5% and 5.25% by May, and traders now expect the FOMC to begin cutting rates as soon as June.

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