Consumers continue to feel worse about the economy, with expectations of a recession still on the horizon, despite keeꦗping up with their levels of spending.

The Consumer Confidence Index declined in October to 102.6, down from a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:September reading of 104.3 that was revised upward this month, according to the Conference Board’s monthly data release. It’s the third consecutive month that the index declined, though it did come in higher than economist forecasts of 100.0.

The Present Situation Index—consumers’ views of current business and labor market condit🐠ions—declined to 143.1 in October, down from 146.2 in September.  The Expectations Index showed that consumers’ short-term view assessment of income, business and labor market conditions fell to 75.6 in October, from September’s 76.4 level.

Index readings below 80 have historically signaled a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:recession within the next year and the board said that i🍸ts data showed a “short and shallow economic contraction” was anticipated in the first half of 2024. Plus, more than two-thirℱds of consumers said that recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October. 

“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers—at least through the t﷽hird quarter of this year—continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” said Dana Peterson, Confere🍨nce Board chief economist. 

Strong Spending May Drop Off Soon

While they are spending, consumers are also focused on prices, with 12-month inflation expectations increasing to 5.9% in October, moving up from the 5.7% inflation expectations of the past three months. Those readings are well above the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:3.7% inflation rate that the Labor Department reported for September and come as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also showed that 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:inflation was a forefront concern. 

In addition to higher prices for food and fuel, consumers are also worried about o🎃ther domestic and international issues, like conflict in the Middle East and a potential U.S. government shutdown, the report said. 

And consumer buying habits may not last long, as Wells Fargo economists Shannon Seery and Jerꦫemiah Kohl noted in an analysis Tuesday that plans to buy a car, house or major appliance in the♏ next six months all slipped in October.

“If our current forecast for moderating job growth in the coming months does indeed materialize, th🧔ere is risk that consumer confidence furthers its streak of declines and household spending eventually follows suit,” the Wells Fargo note said. 

Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers also noted that the sur꧙vey indicated that consumer spending was set to decline. 

“This could set up a weaker fourth quarter for consumer spending, especially on big-ticket items with financing costs up so much over the past year,” Ayers wrote in an email. “We expect a sharp slowdown in consumer activity to end 2023, reducing real GDP growth from the blowout reading for the third quarter.”