Immigration reform can be a contentious topic for many Americans. While the vast majority of immigrants live and work in the United States legally, in 2023, 23% of all immigrants were unauthorized.

During the first Trump administration, 1.5 million undocumented immigrants were deported. The Biden administration had deported and expelled (denied entry at the border) more than 4.4 million such individuals, as of February 2024.

While President Trump cited an array of reasons for his action, from human trafficking concerns to abstract population caps—“Our country is full,” he announced in April 2019—his argument was always largely economic, with unauthorized immigrants "straining the system."

Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sand♐ers, Cory Booker, and then-Senator Kamala Harris all advocated downgrading illegal border crossings to a civil offense.

During his time in office, President Joe Biden played up the positive contr🍃ibutions of undocumented immigrants to society.

So who’s right and who’s wrong when it comes to undocumented workers and the economy? We’ll look beyond the heated rhetoric and explain what resea🌃rchers from both sides of the political spectrum have to say. 

Impact on the Job Market

In his first administration, President Trump’s hard line on undocument✃ed immigrants was based on the assumption that those immigrants take jobs from American citiz🔴ens.

On the surface, this appeared to be a logical conclusion for a cohort that represented 10.5 million people in 2017. But, advocates say this argument ignored the dynamic nature of the job market.

Contributions of Immigrants to the U.S. Economy

Immigrants aren’t just workers—they’re also consumers who 𓆏buy goods and services. Some researchers believe mass deportation would shrink overall economic output.

In its 2024 report, the American Immigration Council estimated that it would reduce 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2% - 6.8%.

In addition, mass deportation would have a huge impact on U.S. tax revenues. The report states that in 2022, undocumented immigrant households paid:

• $46.8 billion in federal taxes
• $29.3 billion in state and local taxes
• $22.6 billion to Social Security
• $5.7 billion to Medicare

Taking Low-Skilled Jobs

What’s more, undocumented workers often take low-ski𝔉lled jobs in which American citizens have little interest, including those in labor-intensive fields like agriculture and forestry.

Bipartisan research and advocacy organization New American Economy found that low-skilled immigrants were 18% more likely to work unusual hours than their U.S.-born counterparts.

Dropping Birthrates and Aging Workers

Birthrates are dropping in the U.S. The average American woman in 2022 was having 1.7 children, according to the latest numbers from 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:The World Bank. Therefore, some experts say immigrants can help fill a hole in the l🤪abor market that will ultimately boost the economy.

In addition, an aging U.S. population also presents a challenge to the labor market. According to the Conference Board, this will limit the labor supply unless migrants are available to fill the growing number of job openings.

The Committee for Economic Development concluded that because roughly half of the immigrants from Latin America were between 18 and 35, the U.S. wouldn’t have to shoulder the cost of their schooling.

Bringing in even 100,000 of these immigrants annually would represent an injection of 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:human capital that would otherwise cost us $47 billion in education and childcare costs.

Will Wages Drop?

One of the claims you’ll🧸 often hear amnesty critics say is that allꦗowing more workers to compete for American jobs will suppress wages for existing employees.

Wages Decrease and Increase

The basic rules of supply and demand would sꦰeem to support that claim. When the number of workers goes up, the amount companies have to pay presumably goes down.

However, several studies have shown that the impact on wages among low-skilled🌄 workers is relatively modest.

Most put it at less than 1%. Researchers Gianmarco Ottaviano and Giovanni Peri found that in the long run, increased immigration had a very small positive impact, 0.6%, on the wages of native-born Americans.

Even if pay for these jobs were to decrease, that might not be the case in every field. Supporters of immigration reform say that the availability of more workers is a boon for businesses, which benefit from lower 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:production costs.

Research by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), reported in 2024, also estimated that the average wage growth of U.S.-born citizens might slow due to a 2021 to 2026 immigration surge.

However, that slow-down would reverse and wages would increase somewhat "due to higher innovation-related productivity and because the increase in the number of less-educated workers boosts the demand for more-educated people to work with them."

Demand for Skilled Workers Can Grow

This theor﷽etically strengthens demand for high-ski🍸ll jobs, such as managers and accountants, that don’t face as much competition from undocumented workers. Therefore, reform could presumably boost wages, at least marginally, for jobs that require a college degree.

Effect on the Treasury

One of the most contentious con💎cerns is over the effect that illegal immigration has on government coffers. A path to citizenship for workers who are already in the country means many of them would 𓆉contribute federal and state income taxes for the first time.

But they would also have access to a range of benefits to which they’re currently locked out—education at public schools, Medicaid, nutrition assistance, and the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:earned income tax credit (EITC).

Financial Cost vs. Contribution of Immigrants

In 2017, researchers Robert Rector and Jamie Bryan Hall of the conservative Heritage Foundation analyze🌼d the Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment (RAISE) Act, which would limit the n🥀umber of visas given to low-skilled workers.

They suggested that immigrants without a high school degree—the typical level from Latin America is a 10th-grade education—receive an average of $4 in government benefits for every $1 they contribute in taxes.

Rector and Hall concluded that the 4.7 million low-skilled immigrants estimated to enter the U.S. in the next decade would be a net drag on the Treasury of $1.9 trillion.

But a 2016 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report paints a very different picture. While first-generation immigrants may cost the government more on a 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:per-capita basis than U.S.-born citizens, their children cost less.

That’s because second-generation immigrants exhibited “slightly higher educational achievement, as well as their higher wages and salaries.” As a result, they pay more in taxes.

That previously mentioned 2024 CBO report estimated that the 2021 to 2026 immigration surge would add $1.2 trillion to federal revenues from 2024 to 2034. In addition, it would increase the total nominal GDP by $1.3 trillion (or 3.2%) in 2034 and by $8.9 trillion for the 2024 to 2034 period.

The CBO also estimated that for that period, the surge would increase mandatory spending and increase debt interest, and, as a result, lower deficits by $0.9 trillion.

Adding to Social Security

There’s also some evidence that immigrants help bolster Social Security, which retiring Baby Boomers are pressuring with withdrawa💞ls.

Back in 2013, chief actuary Stephen Goss of the Social Security Administration and other researchers estimated that roughly 1.8 million immigrants used a Social Security card that did not match their name to gain employment in 2010.

The result? These individuals tended to pay far more into the ꦛౠsystem than they pulled out in benefits.

At the time, Goss asserted that undocumented residents kicked $13 billion into Social Security through payroll taxes, but only gained $1 billion in benefit payments.

In 2022, they reportedly paid $25.7  billion in Social Security taxes.

The Bottom Line

Those who cross into the U.S. without documentation are seen by some Americans as a potential detriment to society and the economy. Other people believe that unauthoriz🍎ed 🥀immigrants lower costs for their employers and represent a sizable consumer group.

Indeed, some research indicates that they create more job opportunities than they take. While some studies have shown that 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:illega♚l immigration suppresses wages in low-skilled s𒀰egments of the workforce, the 𒀰effect over time, if any, appears to be minimal.

And while first-generation immigrants may cost the government more than native-born workers because of their lower incomes, many pay far more into Social Security than they receive. They also add younger workers to the nation's aging labor force.