Key Takeaways
- UBS and Mizuho analysts lowered their targets for Tesla on Thursday, citing the potential of tariffs to weaken the broader auto industry.
- Demand for electric vehicles is already soft, and sales may fall an additional 11% in 2025, according to UBS estimates.
- Analysts also pared back their price expectations for General Motors, Rivian, and a number of auto suppliers.
Analysts lowered targ🙈ets for Tesla on Thursday amid concerns that tariffs will weaken the broader auto industry.
UBS cut its target price for Tesla (TSLA) to $190, estimating that the electric car manufacturer's 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:vehicle deliveries will fall 11% in 2025. Mizuho analysts said tariffs will increase Tesla prices and erode an already-weakening demand, lowering its target price to $375. A consensus 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:analyst estimate puts T🐼esla shares somewhere in the middle, at around $327, or nearly 30% above Thursday's closing price, according to Visible Alpha.
“While lower estimates for 2025 are now more broadly expected, we believe the who𒀰le trajectory of earnings for [Tesla] remains too high...” UBS wrote in a note Thursday, adding that sharꦅes will likely “be volatile but downward sloping.”
Tesla shares and the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:broader market have oscillated in recent days amid shifts in U.S. trade policy. 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:CEO Elon Musk’s work slashing government spending has also 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:influenced the car mౠakerജ's stock prices. Shares finished down more than 7% on Thursday 𒉰but were still up more than 40% from a year earlier.
Although the Trump administration 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:scaled back tariffs this week on a number of U.S. trading partners, goods from China, including car batteries and their components, are subject to 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:tariffs of more than 100%.✱ Import taxes of 25% remain in effect on cars, which will drive up prices, deter consumers, and potentially reduce Tesla’s 2025 U.S. revenue by 3.5%, Mizuho estimated.
“While a reduction in reciprocal tariffs helps reduce recession/demand destruction risk, we point out that the auto tariffs are sector specific, not subject to individual 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:country trade negotiations,” UBS said. “In our view, they ꧒are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.”
Trade Policies May Usher in 'New Era' for Auto Industry
Sector-specific tariffs will likely add an average of $5,000 to car costs and depress ✃domestic demand by 9%, according to UBS analysts, who factored in the current 25% tariff on cars and the 25% import tax on parts slated to go into effect early next month. The trade policies may usher in “a new era” for the U.S. auto industry, UBS said.
“Production disruptions are likely...and 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:supply chains that were set up to be optimized over decades may need to be reimagined," sai👍d UBS.
Tariffs may also reduce General Motors’ (GM) domestic annual revenue by 4% and Rivian Automotive’s (RIVN) by 3.5%, Mizuho estimated. Both Mizuho and UBS lowered their price targets for GM and Rivian's stock, along with several auto suppl🥃iers.
General Motors fell 4%, and Rivian shares declined 2.6% on Thursday.