The U.S. stock market is soaring to new highs, with the bellwether S&P 500 Index (SPX) up by 16.7% year-to-date through the April 25 close, a robust 24.7% above the low reached in 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:intraday trading on Dec. 26, 2018. The pessimists say that the market has risen too far, too fast, and that a nasty 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:correction, if not a genuine 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:bear market, is due to follow. However, five top investment professionals see opportunities for further🧸 gains, and shared their recommendations with .
These experts are: Jim Hamel, portfolio manager, Artisan Global Opportunities Fund; Sarah Ketterer, CEO and fund manager, Causeway Capital Management; Ian Harnett, chief investment 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:strategist, Absolute Strategy Research; Joe Davis, global chief economist and head of investment strategy, 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:The Vanguard Group𝐆; and Jim Paulsen, chief investment str🌳ategist, The Leuthold Group. The table below summarizes their suggestions for investors.
5 Strategies For The Market's Peak
- Hamel: invest in "new profit cycles" spawned by 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:ESG criteria
- Ketterer: shift toward 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:value stocks
- Harnett: pursue a mix of "strategic caution and tactical agility"
- Davis: don't chase short-term gains; diversify in line with your 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:risk tolerance
- Paulsen: expect market turbulence, but stay invested in stocks
Source: Bloomberg
Significance For Investors
Here we explore these investment professionals' comments in more detail.
Jim Hamel. He is convinced that so-called environment, social and governance (ESG) criteria are generating promising new avenues for profit. For one example, he cites the energy sector, which he believes is "at an inflection point," as companies that adopt ESG principles "increasingly view utilizing less carbon-intensive energy alternatives as an economic decision."
Hamel notes that the prices of wind- and solar-driven power are falling, making them "viable options likely to see accelerating adoption in the years ahead." To play this trend, Bloomberg suggests the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which is up 22.2% YTD through April 25.
Sarah Ketterer. She notes that value stocks have underperformed 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:growth stocks through much of the current bull market, "resulting in historically wide gaps between value indexes and growth indexes." Based on data since 2000, she finds that cheap stocks in the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) outperform expensive stocks by more than 40% over the next 12 months when the gap between their respective 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:earning yields is within the top decile.
Right now, Ketterer says that the earnings yield gap is in the 92nd percentile. "At some point, extreme levels of depressed 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:valuations will inspire buyers to snap up bargains," she asserts. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley sees key 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:vulnerabilities for growth stocks that are spurring a rotation away from them. Bloomberg suggests the Pacer Developed Markets International Cash Cows 100 ETF (ICOW) as a way to play the value theme. The fund has a global portfolio of 100 companies with high 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:free cash flow yields.
Ian Harnett. If commodity prices rally because of low 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:real yields, basic resources such as oil and gas may be among the 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:cyclical sectors poised to rally in the second quarter of 2019, in his opinion. Unlike Ketterer, Harnett is overweight in growth versus value, but prefers quality to momentum. In line with Harnett's views, Bloomberg suggests the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG), which is 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:overweight in information technology, communication services, and 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:consumer discretionary, with 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:underweight positions in financials and 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:consumer staples.
Joe Davis. "While it’s tempting to react to day-to-day market swings in the hopes of adding return, it may backfire. Investors who abandon best practices in search of short-term returns end up eroding as much as 3 percent of their portfolio’s value, according to Vanguard research," Davis says.
"A portfolio with a high level of diversification that aligns with their risk tolerance...may not produce immediate outsize returns, but it may better protect against an economic downturn or significant market swings," he adds. For a low-cost diversified fund that invests in U.S. and global stocks, Bloomberg suggests the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI).
Jim Paulsen. In a recent 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:note to Leuthold clients, Paulsen says that his "Worry Gauge" points to more stock market gains ahead. In remarks to Bloomberg, he recommends "cheaper international stocks (in both developed and 澳洲幸运5开奖号码历史查询:emerging markets), as well as beneficiaries of a weaker U.S. dollar (energy, materials and industrials), and leaders of an economic revival (financials). Remain underweight on consumer sectors that may be squeezed by rising labor costs, and avoid the popular FAANG stocks."
Looking Ahead
Since the future paths of the world economy and global stock markets are unknowable, the advice from Joe Davis is especially sound. Indeed, it always makes sense to follow ꦛa disciplined, long-term approach to investing built upon understanding your tolerance for risk anꦜd diversifying your holdings accordingly.